MDIR Monthly Ignition Risk Maps, an Integrated Open-Source Strategy for Wildfire Prevention

Countries unaccustomed to wildfires are currently experiencing wildfire as a new climate-change reality. Understanding how fire ignition and propagation correlated with temperature, orography, humidity, wind, the mixture age of individual plants must be considered when designing prevention strategies. While focuses on avoidance, firefighting success depends early detection, meaning that, in either case, plays major role. The current case study three Portuguese municipalities that annually observe frequent ignitions (Tomar, Ourém, Ferreira do Zêzere) testing ground for Modernized Dynamic Ignition Risk (MDIR) strategy, thus evaluating efficiency MDIR efficacy variables used. This methodology uses geographic information systems technology sustained by open-source satellite imagery, along Habitat Assessment model from InVEST software package, drivers application. approach grants update capabilities fully open-sourced high risk area identification, producing monthly maps. advantage using this method is ease adaptation any monitoring awarding further reducing ignitions. delivered adequate results estimating municipalities, achieving, several months, prediction accuracy percentages over 70%. For studied area, clearly identifies areas delivers an average 62% predicting ignitions, showing potential analyzing impact policy implementation through strategy design.